近线硬盘产能已被订到 2028–2029,二手企业盘的折价从 40–50% 收窄到 20–30%Nearline HDD capacity is booked into 2028–2029; the used-enterprise discount has narrowed from 40–50% to 20–30%
希捷与西部数据双双确认 2026 年近线硬盘产能已售罄,部分大客户把供应名额提前锁到 2029 年。对二手市场最直接的后果是价差被压缩。
Both Seagate and Western Digital have confirmed that 2026 nearline capacity is sold out, with some large customers pre-booking supply slots into 2029. The most direct consequence for the secondary market is a compressed price gap.
两家原厂的财报电话会给出的是同一组事实:西部数据 2026 年产能「基本售罄」,前七大客户已下确定订单,其中两家签到了 2027 年、一家签到 2028 年;希捷近线产能全年分配完毕,并已开始接受 2027 上半年的订单。近线硬盘加 HAMR 产品占西部数据营收的约 89%,消费级只占约 5% —— 也就是说零售市场拿不到多少新盘。
对二手/翻新企业盘的影响有两面。一面是需求外溢:拿不到新盘配额的中小企业、区域云与安防集成商,会把预算转到认证再生的企业级盘上,我们这类供货方的询盘量明显上来。另一面是价格:数据中心拆机盘原本普遍比新盘低 40–50%,现在收窄到 20–30%,因为新盘涨价把这条「参照线」整个抬起来了。
给采购方的实在建议:不要再等「回到 2024 年价格」。当两家几乎垄断产能的厂商 2026 年售罄、并把 2027–2028 年预签出去,短期内没有任何机制让价格回落。务实的做法是锁定可交付的现货批次、把补货周期从「按需买」改成「按 60–90 天前置排」;我们这边的做法是把在库数量与当日报价直接摆在看板上,方便你随时比对。
Both vendors' earnings calls described the same reality: Western Digital says its 2026 capacity is "pretty much sold out", with firm purchase orders from its top seven customers — two of them signed through 2027 and one through 2028. Seagate says nearline capacity is fully allocated for the year and it has started taking orders for the first half of 2027. Nearline plus HAMR products account for roughly 89% of WD revenue, while consumer drives are only about 5% — meaning the retail channel gets very little new stock.
The effect on used and refurbished enterprise drives cuts both ways. On the demand side, SMBs, regional clouds and security integrators who cannot secure new-drive allocation shift budget to certified-reuse enterprise drives, and our own inbound enquiry volume has clearly risen. On the price side, datacenter pulls used to trade 40–50% below new; that gap has narrowed to 20–30%, because rising new-drive prices lift the entire reference line.
The practical advice for buyers: stop waiting for a return to 2024 pricing. When two vendors who make nearly all the world's drives are sold out for 2026 and pre-booked into 2027–2028, nothing on the supply side can push prices down in the near term. What works instead is locking deliverable stock batches and moving from buy-on-demand to a 60–90 day forward schedule. That is exactly why we publish live on-hand quantities and same-day pricing on the board.